Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.017503 0.019822 0.022335 0.025263 0.028581 0.032226 0.036535
2025-08-24 0.013850 0.017041 0.020799 0.025554 0.031414 0.038411 0.047410
2025-08-31 0.011628 0.015141 0.019517 0.025375 0.033025 0.042694 0.055877
2025-09-07 0.010364 0.014136 0.019056 0.025956 0.035404 0.047921 0.065824
2025-09-14 0.008913 0.012651 0.017725 0.025130 0.035694 0.050271 0.072004
2025-09-21 0.007913 0.011640 0.016882 0.024811 0.036545 0.053338 0.079325
2025-09-28 0.006967 0.010585 0.015841 0.024055 0.036623 0.055218 0.084989
2025-10-05 0.006615 0.010361 0.015969 0.025006 0.039273 0.061052 0.097056
2025-10-12 0.006223 0.010027 0.015884 0.025596 0.041386 0.066204 0.108481
2025-10-19 0.005892 0.009750 0.015851 0.026244 0.043616 0.071684 0.120875
2025-10-26 0.005436 0.009223 0.015364 0.026095 0.044505 0.075033 0.129989
2025-11-02 0.005065 0.008802 0.015008 0.026117 0.045657 0.078878 0.140231
2025-11-09 0.004633 0.008245 0.014389 0.025657 0.045974 0.081385 0.148483
2025-11-16 0.004371 0.007962 0.014216 0.025961 0.047665 0.086432 0.161769
2025-11-23 0.004059 0.007562 0.013798 0.025779 0.048444 0.089885 0.172388
2025-11-30 0.003890 0.007406 0.013803 0.026369 0.050690 0.096188 0.188936
2025-12-07 0.003541 0.006882 0.013086 0.025531 0.050140 0.097182 0.195243
2025-12-14 0.003293 0.006529 0.012658 0.025206 0.050548 0.100019 0.205418
2025-12-21 0.003014 0.006091 0.012033 0.024438 0.050000 0.100922 0.211713
2025-12-28 0.002957 0.006092 0.012264 0.025404 0.053040 0.109229 0.234101
2026-01-04 0.002862 0.006007 0.012315 0.026004 0.055367 0.116260 0.254392
2026-01-11 0.002778 0.005938 0.012393 0.026663 0.057867 0.123841 0.276536
2026-01-18 0.002622 0.005701 0.012103 0.026511 0.058604 0.127726 0.290823